(Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to the highest in more than three months, breaking out of a downtrend its held since August, as growing inflation concerns and assurances on monetary policy brought investors back to the metal.
Bullion, which was dogged by higher bond yields at the start of the year, has staged a second-quarter turnaround. That recovery was driven by repeated assurances from Federal Reserve officials that they aren’t considering raising rates or scaling back bond buying anytime soon, even as inflationary pressures emerge in commodity markets.
The result has been declining real yields, driven by growing inflation expectations that make non-interest bearing gold seem more attractive. It’s helped revive investor interest in bullion, with both exchange-traded funds and Comex money managers boosting their exposure in recent weeks. With the dollar weakening, the metal has pared this year’s losses to just 1.5%.
“It seems inflation fears are finally translating into higher precious metals prices,” said John Feeney, business development manager at Sydney-based bullion dealer Guardian Gold Australia. “ETF investors are starting to swing into net-buyers again.”
Investors will look to the minutes from the Fed’s April meeting due Wednesday for any sign policy makers may taper stimulus earlier than expected. Vice Chair Richard Clarida said Monday the economy had not yet reached the threshold to warrant scaling back the central bank’s massive bond purchases, while Dallas President Robert Kaplan said he expects price pressures to ease in 2022.
While Morgan Stanley expects the first warning of bond tapering to come in September -- putting pressure back on gold -- analysts at the bank said bullion has the potential to stay above $1,700 an ounce through the second half of the year.
Spot gold rose as much as 0.4% to $1,873.82 an ounce, the highest since Jan. 29, and traded at $1,868.24 by 10:44 a.m. in London. Silver and palladium gained, while platinum dropped. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%.
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