Twitter deal price 'is going lower' as Elon Musk 'knows that he's overpaying': Thill

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The saga surrounding Elon Musk attempting to buy Twitter (TWTR) continues as the Tesla CEO to front $33.5 billion of his own wealth to take over Twitter, according to a new SEC filing.

Musk bid $44 billion to buy out the tech platform in April, but some observers aren't convinced that the deal will be completed at the price (if at all).

The deal price "is going lower," Brent Thill, equity analyst at Jefferies, told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). "Elon is not a dumb guy. Like we say: 'Don't bet against Musk.' This guy knows that he's overpaying. He knows that the world has changed in the last month and that things are getting softer."

The SEC disclosure came soon after Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal suggested the deal was moving forward after Musk said the acquisition was on hold until he could confirm the company's figures "that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users."

"We are working through the transaction process," Agrawal said at Twitter's annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday. “Even as we work toward closing this transaction, our teams and I remain focused on the important work we do every day.”

Musk has consistently to level fresh criticism at the Twitter platform, with tactics that include responding to an Agrawal tweet thread with a poop emoji.

Twitter stock popped in early trading on Thursday while Tesla stock (TSLA) — which are down more than 47% from their peak — was mostly flat.

Thill is not alone on Wall Street in his speculation that Musk might try to negotiate a lower price for the acquisition or attempt to walk away from the deal altogether.

“Our view is the massive pressure on Tesla's stock since the deal, a changing stock market/risk environment the last month, and a number of other financing factors (equity financing) has caused Musk to get 'cold feet' on the Twitter deal with the bot issue not a new issue and likely more of a scapegoat to push for a lower price,” Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives previously said in a note.

Thill pointed to Snap (SNAP) stock as an indication of how much things have deteriorated for the tech sector. The stock crashed earlier this week, dragging down other tech and social media names, after the company revised its earnings forecast lower and warned of macroeconomic headwinds.

"Look at the Snap numbers, ... just a month ago, things were amazing," he said. "Five weeks to go in the quarter — five weeks — they're like, we're going to be underneath the guidance we just gave you four weeks ago. What does that tell you? Things are softening materially."

Dani Romero is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @daniromerotv

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