(Bloomberg) -- The dollar and Treasury yields fell as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Stocks, oil and gold rose.
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Mining and energy shares led gains in Europe, while US equity futures advanced. Chinese stocks pared gains after the Foreign Ministry said it was unaware of any plans to ease Covid restrictions in the mainland.
Treasury yields slid below 4%, but remained elevated. Swap markets are pricing in a 75-basis-point hike this week amid the Fed’s most-aggressive tightening campaign in four decades.
Still, strategists including JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic believe the Fed’s aggressive hiking is nearing an end, providing the prospect of relief for markets. The US will likely raise rates by 50 basis points in December and pause after one more 25-basis-point hike in the first quarter, he said.
Indicators such as the inversion of the yield curve between 10-year and three-month Treasuries “all support a Fed pivot sooner rather than later,” wrote Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
Looking ahead, Bespoke Investment Group said November has historically been one of the strongest months of the year for US stocks. The S&P 500 has experienced an average gain of 0.82% with positive returns 69% of the time, according to data going back to 1983. Over the last 10 years, the gauge saw a median advance of 1.26% and gains nine out of 10 times.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index snapped a three-day rising streak, while the euro and pound rose. The UK government said it’s inevitable that all Britons, especially the richest, will have to pay more tax to restore stability to the public finances.
In China, the strong initial reaction to an unverified social media post that a committee was being formed to assess scenarios on how to exit Covid Zero “shows how much anticipation there has been for the reopening in the market,” said Hao Hong, partner at Grow Investment Group.
Australian government bond yields reversed earlier gains and the nation’s stocks rallied to a seven-week high after the central bank raised interest rates by a quarter point as expected.
The yen strengthened while remaining within reach of 150 versus the dollar. Japan spent a record 6.3 trillion yen ($42 billion) in October to counter the currency’s sharp slide, as it tried to limit speculative moves adding pressure.
Key events this week:
US construction spending, ISM manufacturing index, Tuesday
EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
Federal Reserve rate decision, Wednesday
US MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment, Wednesday
Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
US factory orders, durable goods, trade, initial jobless claims, ISM services index, Thursday
ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Thursday
US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.7% as of 8:03 a.m. London time
Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.6%
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
The euro rose 0.5% to $0.9932
The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 147.94 per dollar
The offshore yuan rose 0.7% to 7.2867 per dollar
The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.1529
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1% to $20,605.63
Ether rose 1.7% to $1,591.03
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.99%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.12%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 3.43%
Commodities
Brent crude rose 1.7% to $94.35 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.8% to $1,646.29 an ounce
--With assistance from Jeanny Yu and Charlotte Yang.
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