Starbucks (SBUX) is set to report fiscal second quarter 2023 earnings results on Tuesday, May 2. The verdict: Wall Street expects strong sales momentum in the U.S. as consumers continue to spend despite higher prices. Also: an increase in international sales and narrowing declines in China.
This will mark CEO Laxman Narasimhan's first earnings report since he took the helm on March 23, after three-time CEO Howard Shultz stepped down two weeks earlier than initially planned.
Here's what the Street expects from Starbucks, per Bloomberg:
Revenue: $8.42 billion, up 10.3% compared to last year
Adjusted earnings per share: $0.65, up 6.3% compared to last year
Same-Store Sales: up 7.33%
U.S. Same-Store Sales: up 8.91%
International Same-Store Sales: up 1.51%
China Same-Store Sales: down 9.86% compared to a decline of 23% in Q2, 22'
For the quarter, UBS analyst Dennis Geiger, who holds a neutral rating, believes the "focus" is now on "resiliency of U.S. sales momentum in a more difficult macro" as the coffee chain sees higher foot traffic.
According to Placer. ai, foot traffic picked up this year—up as high as 9.1% during the week of January 30, and up 4.7% the week of April 10. The author of the report said, "While some of the January and February, year-over-year visit growth may be attributable to the Omicron-induced slump of early 2022, the positive trend continued into March and early April."
In North America, the average ticket price is expected to increase by 6.25%, meanwhile ticket growth internationally is also expected to increase 3.42% for the quarter, which ended on April 28.
Wedbush analyst Nick Setyan, who also holds a neutral rating, said this increased check size could be attributed to, among other things, better weather, improved speed of service and strength in delivery and mobile orders.
Meanwhile, analysts are keeping a close eye on China. In Q1, "the unprecedented, COVID-related headwinds that unfolded" took a toll on sales, said then-Starbucks interim CEO Howard Schultz. In Q1, sales in China dropped 29%, far more than analyst expectations (down 13.3%.)
China's COVID-19 related recovery may in the rearview mirror, per Seytan. He said, "While visibility into the trajectory of a recovery in China remains relatively limited, it is clear that the multi-year headwind has now turned into a tailwind."
CITI analyst Jon Tower, who also holds a neutral rating, expects CEO Narasimhan to address how "how incremental margins in China can continue to grind higher beyond the initial [COVID] reopening phase." Back in September, Starbucks announced its 6,000th store opening in China.
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Brooke DiPalma is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.
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