UPDATE 1-US natgas futures jump 6% on small storage build, soaring prices in Europe

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(Adds EIA storage data, latest prices) June 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a three-week high on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected weekly U.S. storage build, soaring gas prices in Europe, a decline in U.S. output and expectations of record power demand in Texas next week. That price increase came despite a drop in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities due to plant maintenance. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added just 84 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 9. That was less than the 95-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 94 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 84 bcf. Last week's increase boosted stockpiles to 2.634 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 15.5% above the five-year average of 2.281 tcf for the time of year. Analysts expected the build to be higher because mild weather last week kept air conditioning demand low. Traders, however, said low wind power last week forced generators to burn more gas to produce power despite the mild weather. The amount of total U.S. power generation from wind fell to just 5% last week, down from a recent high of 10% during the week ended June 2, according to federal energy data. That boosted the amount of generation from gas to 45% last week, up from recent lows of 40% during the weeks ended May 26 and June 2. In Texas, meanwhile, the state's power grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), now expects electricity use will break peak demand records next week as homes and businesses crank up air conditioners to escape the summer's first heat wave. Earlier in the week, ERCOT forecast demand would break the record this week. Front-month gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 14.9 cents, or 6.4%, to $2.491 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:43 a.m. EDT (1443 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since May 19. That also puts the front-month on track to rise for a fourth day in a row and the ninth time in the last 10 days. Global prices have moved in different directions this month, with gas at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe soaring to around $13 per mmBtu, which is up about 84% since TTF fell to a 25-month low of $7.34 on June 2. In Asia, meanwhile, gas prices at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia have held near a 24-month low of $9 per mmBtu since late May. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 101.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from a monthly record of 102.5 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly near normal from June 15-22 before turning hotter-than-normal from June 23-30. With warmer weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 93.1 bcfd this week to 96.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 11.6 bcfd so far in June, down from 13.0 bcfd in May. That is well below the monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April due to maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana. On a daily basis, the amount of gas flowing to LNG plants dropped to 10.2 bcfd on Wednesday, the lowest since December 2022. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jun 9 Jun 2 Jun 9 average (Actual) (Actual) Jun 9 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 84 118 94 84 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,634 2,550 2,082 2,281 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 15.5% 16.1% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.37 2.34 7.60 6.54 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 14.73 12.36 33.44 40.50 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 9.40 9.30 29.72 34.11 14.31 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 7 8 9 10 11 U.S. GFS CDDs 190 180 198 168 166 U.S. GFS TDDs 197 188 207 178 177 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 102.3 101.5 101.6 97.5 89.8 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.0 6.5 6.6 8.9 7.9 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 109.3 108.1 108.1 106.4 97.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.1 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.7 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.5 U.S. LNG Exports 11.9 11.2 11.6 10.7 6.0 U.S. Commercial 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 U.S. Residential 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.3 U.S. Power Plant 38.1 37.0 39.6 38.2 34.8 U.S. Industrial 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.0 21.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 74.9 73.8 76.3 74.6 71.9 Total U.S. Deman 95.6 93.1 96.1 93.7 85.7 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Jun 16 Jun 9 Jun 2 May 26 May 19 Wind 9 5 10 9 8 Solar 5 5 5 5 4 Hydro 6 7 8 9 9 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 42 45 40 40 42 Coal 16 17 15 15 15 Nuclear 20 20 20 20 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.05 2.00 Transco Z6 New York 1.47 1.43 PG&E Citygate 2.86 2.95 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.31 1.41 Chicago Citygate 1.96 1.96 Algonquin Citygate 1.65 1.60 SoCal Citygate 3.15 3.05 Waha Hub 1.92 1.95 AECO 1.76 1.86 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 27.75 25.75 PJM West 28.50 31.50 Ercot North 30.00 45.00 Mid C 27.00 24.75 Palo Verde 20.75 19.50 SP-15 22.00 21.25 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Barbara Lewis and Sharon Singleton)

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