June 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Wednesday as the drop in output in recent weeks and forecasts for the weather to remain hot through at least early July offset expectations the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants will remain low due to maintenance work. In Texas, meanwhile, the power grid operator again projected electric use would break a record - this time on Wednesday - after forecast usage fell short of the all-time high on Tuesday as consumers heeded calls to conserve energy during an early summer heat wave. That increase in power demand should boost the amount of gas generators burn since Texas gets about half of its electricity from gas. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), according to federal energy data. Front-month gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.7 cent, or 0.3%, to $2.499 per million British thermal units at 9:25 a.m. EDT (1325 GMT). Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 102.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in May to 101.6 bcfd so far in June due in part to ongoing pipeline maintenance in the Haynesville shale in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas, and other basins. The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Tropical Storm Bret would remain a tropical storm as it moves west from the Atlantic Ocean over the next several days before dissipating in the Caribbean Sea around Sunday. The center projected another system in the Atlantic had a 70% chance of strengthening into a cyclone over the next five days as it moves west toward the Caribbean. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would turn from mostly near-normal from June 21-23 to hotter-than-normal from June 24-July 6. With hot weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 94.2 bcfd this week to 98.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. U.S. exports to Mexico rose to an average of 6.6 bcfd so far in June, up from 6.2 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 6.7 bcfd in June 2021. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 11.4 bcfd so far in June from 13.0 bcfd in May. That is well below the monthly record high of 14.0 bcfd in April due to maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Freeport LNG in Texas. The record flows in April were higher than the 13.8 bcfd of gas the seven big plants can turn into LNG since the facilities also use some of the fuel to power equipment used to produce LNG. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jun 16 Jun 9 Jun 16 average (Forecast) (Actual) Jun 16 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 99 84 76 86 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,733 2,634 2,158 2,367 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 15.5% 15.5% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.48 2.49 7.60 6.54 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 11.87 11.63 33.44 40.50 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 11.20 13.69 29.72 34.11 14.31 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 4 7 7 7 8 U.S. GFS CDDs 204 203 193 181 178 U.S. GFS TDDs 208 210 200 188 186 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.7 100.6 101.1 97.8 89.8 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.5 6.8 6.8 8.9 7.9 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 108.1 107.2 107.8 106.7 97.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.4 6.6 6.5 6.0 5.5 U.S. LNG Exports 11.3 10.9 11.9 10.5 6.0 U.S. Commercial 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.7 U.S. Residential 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 4.3 U.S. Power Plant 36.9 38.2 42.1 37.9 34.8 U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.0 21.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.8 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 73.5 74.8 78.6 74.0 71.9 Total U.S. Deman 93.0 94.2 98.8 92.8 85.7 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Jun 23 Jun 16 Jun 9 Jun 2 May 26 Wind 11 8 5 10 9 Solar 5 5 5 5 5 Hydro 6 6 7 8 9 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 41 43 45 40 40 Coal 17 16 17 15 15 Nuclear 17 19 20 20 20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.38 2.13 Transco Z6 New York 1.31 1.38 PG&E Citygate 3.26 2.85 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.33 1.31 Chicago Citygate 2.28 2.24 Algonquin Citygate 1.50 1.46 SoCal Citygate 3.96 3.65 Waha Hub 2.36 1.86 AECO 1.91 1.77 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 28.75 24.50 PJM West 31.25 28.50 Ercot North 280.00 36.50 Mid C 46.68 37.00 Palo Verde 15.75 19.50 SP-15 19.00 25.00 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis)
