June 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Wednesday on technical selling and as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export (LNG) remains low due to maintenance outages at several facilities. That price decline came despite a drop in output in recent weeks and forecasts for the weather to remain hotter-than-normal through mid-July, especially in Texas. Power demand in Texas set a new record peak on Tuesday and was expected to break that all-time high on Wednesday as a heat wave bakes the state, according to preliminary data from the state's grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for air conditioning, since Texas gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), according to federal energy data. On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.6 cents, or 2.4%, to $2.697 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:37 a.m. EDT (1337 GMT). That price decline pushed the contract out of technically overbought territory for the first time in four days. August futures, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 4cents to $2.75 per mmBtu. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from a record 102.5 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast that weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal June 28-July 13. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv forecast that U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 97.2 bcfd this week to 102.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. U.S. exports to Mexico rose to an average of 6.4 bcfd so far in June from 6.0 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 6.5 bcfd in June 2021. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 11.4 bcfd so far in June from 13.0 bcfd in May. That is well below the monthly record high of 14.0 bcfd in April due to maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. The record flows in April exceeded the 13.8 bcfd of gas the seven big plants can turn into LNG since the facilities also use some of the fuel to power equipment used to produce LNG. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jun 23 Jun 16 Jun 23 average Jun Forecast Actual 23 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 84 95 81 80 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,813 2,729 2,239 2,447 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 15.0% 15.3% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average 2022 Average (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.72 2.76 7.60 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 11.29 11.24 33.44 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 12.07 11.79 29.72 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 2 2 4 5 5 U.S. GFS CDDs 236 236 207 197 189 U.S. GFS TDDs 238 238 211 202 195 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 100.7 101.1 101.2 98.0 89.8 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.8 8.0 7.5 8.6 7.9 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 107.5 109.0 108.7 106.6 97.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.0 5.5 U.S. LNG Exports 11.0 11.4 12.4 10.8 6.0 U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.7 U.S. Residential 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.6 4.3 U.S. Power Plant 38.5 40.5 45.3 39.9 34.8 U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.0 21.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.8 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 75.1 77.1 81.5 76.1 71.9 Total U.S. Demand 94.7 97.2 102.7 95.1 85.7 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 84 84 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 78 78 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Jun 30 Jun 23 Jun 16 Jun 9 Jun 2 Wind 10 9 8 5 10 Solar 5 4 5 5 5 Hydro 6 6 6 7 8 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 42 42 43 45 40 Coal 17 17 16 17 15 Nuclear 18 19 19 20 20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.68 2.62 Transco Z6 New York 1.63 1.69 PG&E Citygate 3.50 3.70 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.52 1.51 Chicago Citygate 2.47 2.35 Algonquin Citygate 7.25 6.65 SoCal Citygate 4.95 4.85 Waha Hub 2.44 2.48 AECO 1.98 1.87 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 73.75 65.20 PJM West 35.00 37.25 Ercot North 43.67 54.00 Mid C 57.46 45.97 Palo Verde 29.75 31.00 SP-15 30.50 30.25 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Nick Zieminski)
