(Adds latest prices, EIA storage report in paragraphs 5-6) June 29 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected weekly storage build last week and forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. In addition, traders noted prices were up on forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather to continue through mid-July and as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants increases after maintenance work. In Texas, power use set a new record on Tuesday and was expected to break that all-time high on Thursday as a heat wave continues to bake the state, according to preliminary data from the state's grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for air conditioning, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), according to federal energy data. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 23. That was lower than the 82-bcf build analysts forecast and compared with an increase of 81 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 80 bcf. In Appalachia, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved the restart of construction of the long-delayed $6.6 billion Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline from West Virginia to Virginia. The companies building the pipe expect to complete the project by the end of 2023, freeing up more gas supplies in Appalachia, the nation's biggest shale gas region. On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.5 cents, or 2.1%, from where the August contract closed on Wednesday to $2.723 per million British thermal units at 10:32 a.m. EDT (1432 GMT) on Thursday. That, however, was up about 5% from where the July contract closed when it was still the front-month on Wednesday. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from a record 102.5 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast that the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least July 14. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv forecast that U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 98.0 bcfd this week to 104.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 11.5 bcfd so far in June from 13.0 bcfd in May. That is well below the monthly record high of 14.0 bcfd in April due to maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. On a daily basis, however, total feedgas to the seven LNG export facilities rose to a four-week high of 12.8 bcfd on Wednesday as the amount of gas flowing to Sabine jumped about 2 bcfd over the past week to around 4.2 bcfd. That compares with average feedgas to Sabine of 4.5 bcfd so far this year and 4.5 bcfd in all of 2022. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jun 23 Jun 16 Jun 23 average Jun Actual Actual 23 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 76 95 81 80 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,805 2,729 2,239 2,447 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 14.6% 15.3% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average 2022 Average (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.66 2.67 7.60 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 10.55 10.91 33.44 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 12.02 12.07 29.72 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 3 2 4 5 5 U.S. GFS CDDs 238 236 207 197 192 U.S. GFS TDDs 241 238 211 202 197 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 100.7 101.2 101.2 98.0 89.8 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.8 8.0 7.6 8.6 7.9 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 107.5 109.1 108.8 106.6 97.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.0 5.5 U.S. LNG Exports 11.0 11.8 13.0 10.8 6.0 U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.7 U.S. Residential 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.6 4.3 U.S. Power Plant 38.5 41.1 46.2 39.9 34.8 U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.0 21.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 75.1 77.6 82.5 76.1 71.9 Total U.S. Demand 94.7 98.0 104.2 95.1 85.7 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 83 84 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 78 78 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Jun 30 Jun 23 Jun 16 Jun 9 Jun 2 Wind 10 9 8 5 10 Solar 5 4 5 5 5 Hydro 6 6 6 7 8 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 42 42 43 45 40 Coal 17 17 16 17 15 Nuclear 18 19 19 20 20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.71 2.68 Transco Z6 New York 1.64 1.63 PG&E Citygate 4.05 3.50 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.50 1.52 Chicago Citygate 2.43 2.47 Algonquin Citygate 5.96 7.25 SoCal Citygate 4.92 4.95 Waha Hub 2.43 2.44 AECO 1.94 1.98 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 59.50 73.75 PJM West 42.50 35.00 Ercot North 42.00 43.67 Mid C 63.00 57.46 Palo Verde 41.50 29.75 SP-15 43.00 30.50 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Mark Porter and Jonathan Oatis)
