(Adds latest prices) June 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained about 4% to a 17-week high on Friday on a daily rise in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, amid signs of lower U.S. inflation and forecasts for hotter-than-normal U.S. weather to continue through mid-July, especially in Texas. In Texas, power use remained high after setting a record on Tuesday as a heat wave continues to bake the state, according to the state's grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for air conditioning, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), according to federal energy data. "A major factor at play today is the release of new inflation data suggesting that the (U.S.) Federal Reserve (Fed) may be less inclined to continue rate hikes than previously expected," analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber and Associates said, noting the rally began at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) after the U.S. Commerce Department released personal income data for May. The Commerce Department's report showed annual inflation rising last month at its slowest pace in more than two years. Signs of lower inflation could delay interest rate hikes by the Fed. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs, which can slow the economy and reduce demand for energy. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.7 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at $2.798 per million British thermal units, their highest close since March 3. For the week, the U.S. contract was up about 3%, putting it up for a fourth week in a row for the first time since April 2022. For the month, the U.S. contract was up about 23% after falling about 6% in May. For the quarter, the U.S. contract was up about 26% after dropping by a record 50% in the first quarter. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from a record 102.5 bcfd in May. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to rise 1.8 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary two-week high of 102.0 bcfd on Friday. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter-than-normal through at least July 15. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 97.9 bcfd this week to 104.2 bcfd next week as the weather turns hotter, before easing to 103.6 bcfd in two weeks as temperatures moderate a bit. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 11.6 bcfd so far in June from 13.0 bcfd in May. That is well below the monthly record high of 14.0 bcfd in April due to maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. On a daily basis, however, total feedgas to the seven LNG export facilities rose to a four-week high of 12.8 bcfd on Wednesday as the amount of gas flowing to Sabine jumped about 2 bcfd over the past week to around 4.3 bcfd. That compares with average feedgas to Sabine of 4.5 bcfd so far this year and 4.5 bcfd in all of 2022. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jun 30 Jun 23 Jun 30 average Forecast Actual Jun 30 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 73 76 63 64 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,878 2,805 2,302 2,511 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 14.6% 14.6% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.73 2.70 7.60 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 11.13 10.60 33.44 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 12.12 12.02 29.72 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 3 3 4 5 5 U.S. GFS CDDs 237 238 207 197 193 U.S. GFS TDDs 240 241 211 202 198 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 100.7 101.2 101.4 98.0 89.8 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.8 7.9 7.6 8.6 7.9 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 107.5 109.2 109.0 106.6 97.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.0 5.5 U.S. LNG Exports 11.0 11.8 12.9 10.8 6.0 U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.7 U.S. Residential 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.6 4.3 U.S. Power Plant 38.5 40.9 46.3 39.9 34.8 U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.0 21.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 75.1 77.5 82.6 76.1 71.9 Total U.S. Demand 94.7 97.9 104.2 95.1 85.7 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 83 84 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 78 78 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Jun 30 Jun 23 Jun 16 Jun 9 Jun 2 Wind 10 9 8 5 10 Solar 5 4 5 5 5 Hydro 6 6 6 7 8 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 42 42 43 45 40 Coal 17 17 16 17 15 Nuclear 18 19 19 20 20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.40 2.71 Transco Z6 New York 1.59 1.64 PG&E Citygate 4.35 4.05 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.46 1.50 Chicago Citygate 2.40 2.43 Algonquin Citygate 3.70 5.96 SoCal Citygate 5.75 4.92 Waha Hub 2.30 2.43 AECO 1.89 1.94 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 45.50 59.50 PJM West 41.25 42.50 Ercot North 43.50 42.00 Mid C 63.00 63.00 Palo Verde 41.50 41.50 SP-15 43.00 43.00 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino Editing by Nick Zieminski and Aurora Ellis)
