(Adds closing prices) July 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped more than 3% on Monday on forecasts for slightly lower temperatures next week, although an increase in the daily amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and a higher demand outlook limited losses. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 8.9 cents, or about 3.2%, to settle at $2.709 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). "We definitely saw some extremely hot temperatures in parts of the country, but other parts of the country the rain seemed to cool things off. So we're seeing a little bit of a pullback," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. Data provider Refinitiv estimated 237 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states, unchanged from Friday's forecast. The normal for this time of year is 197 CDDs. CDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius) and provide a snapshot into likely demand for cooling. In Texas, power use remained high and reached record levels last week as a heat wave continues to bake the state, according to the state's grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for air conditioning, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. The Texas power grid comfortably met record demand during the heat wave with abundant power supply from wind and solar plants, data from the grid operator showed. "This market is seeing some significant downside price pressures given bearish adjustments to the short-term temperature views seen over the past weekend," analysts at energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. "But for now, we still anticipate a gradual reduction in the gas storage surplus during the coming weeks that could offer some modest price support. Nonetheless, we still see nearby futures as vulnerable to some further price slippage to about the $2.60 level." Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was at 101.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July compared with a record 102.5 bcfd in May. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 103.7 bcfd this week to 104.3 bcfd next week as the weather turns hotter. U.S. exports to Mexico rose to an average of 6.6 bcfd in June, up from 6.2 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 6.8 bcfd in June 2021. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.1 bcfd so far in July from 11.5 bcfd in June. However, that is well below the monthly record high of 14.0 bcfd in April due to maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jun 30 Jun 23 Jun 30 average Forecast Actual Jun 30 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 73 76 63 64 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,878 2,805 2,302 2,511 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 14.6% 14.6% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.70 2.70 7.60 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 12.15 11.13 33.44 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 12.24 12.12 29.72 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 5 3 2 3 4 U.S. GFS CDDs 237 237 220 207 197 U.S. GFS TDDs 242 240 222 210 201 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 100.6 101.8 101.5 U.S. Imports from Canada 8.0 8.0 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply 108.6 109.8 109.3 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 2.4 2.5 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.6 6.5 6.6 U.S. LNG Exports 11.8 13.0 13.5 U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.3 4.4 U.S. Residential 3.7 3.5 3.7 U.S. Power Plant 40.6 45.4 45.0 U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.3 21.4 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.2 2.2 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 77.2 81.8 81.8 Total U.S. Demand 97.6 103.7 104.3 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Jun 30 Jun 23 Jun 16 Jun 9 Jun 2 Wind 10 9 8 5 10 Solar 4 4 5 5 5 Hydro 6 6 6 7 8 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 43 42 43 45 40 Coal 18 17 16 17 15 Nuclear 17 19 19 20 20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.48 2.40 Transco Z6 New York 1.46 1.59 PG&E Citygate 3.85 4.35 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.40 1.46 Chicago Citygate 2.27 2.40 Algonquin Citygate 3.60 3.70 SoCal Citygate 3.40 5.75 Waha Hub 2.17 2.30 AECO 2.39 1.89 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 36.50 45.50 PJM West 32.75 41.25 Ercot North 65.25 43.50 Mid C 89.50 63.00 Palo Verde 49.75 41.50 SP-15 48.00 43.00 (Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; editing by David Evans and David Gregorio)
