(Adds EIA storage report, latest prices) July 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Thursday as ongoing maintenance continues to limit the amount of gas flowing to the country's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. That small price decline came despite a slightly smaller-than-expected storage build last week, another decline in daily output, and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather and high cooling through the end of July, especially in Texas. Power demand in Texas hit a record high on Wednesday, and is expected to top that on Thursday and Friday as homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up to escape another brutal heat wave, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state's power grid operator. Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for cooling, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), according to federal energy data. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 49 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 7. Analysts said that was lower than normal for this time of year because hotter-than-normal weather caused power generators to burn more gas to keep air conditioners humming. That was slightly lower than the 51-bcf analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 59 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 55 bcf. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.8 cents, or 1.4%, to $2.594 per million British thermal units at 10:43 a.m. EDT (1443 GMT). A lack of big price moves in recent weeks has cut historic or actual 30-day close-to-close futures volatility to 54.0%, the lowest level since April 2022 for a third day in a row. On a daily basis, historic volatility hit a record high of 177.7% in February 2022 and a record low of 7.3% in June 1991. Historic volatility has averaged 84.9% so far this year, a record high of 92.8% in 2022 and a five-year (2018-2022) average of 57.9%. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record high of 101.8 bcfd in May. On a daily basis, however, output fell about 3.0 bcfd over the past six days to a preliminary two-week low of 99.7 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania, Texas and North Dakota. Traders, however, noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter-than- normal through at least July 28. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 100.9 bcfd this week to 105.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 12.7 bcfd so far in July from 11.6 bcfd in June. But, that is still well below the monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April due to ongoing maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jul 7 Jun 30 Jul 7 average Forecast Actual Jul 7 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 49 68 59 55 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,930 2,877 2,361 2,566 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 14.2% 14.6% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.62 2.63 7.19 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 8.68 9.20 51.76 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 11.98 12.02 39.36 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 2 1 2 3 3 U.S. GFS CDDs 266 265 239 212 205 U.S. GFS TDDs 268 266 241 215 208 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 102.1 101.3 101.3 97.1 90.5 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.9 7.0 7.8 8.7 8.2 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 110.0 108.2 108.2 105.8 98.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.3 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.5 6.5 6.9 6.0 5.5 U.S. LNG Exports 13.0 12.4 12.5 11.1 6.1 U.S. Commercial 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 U.S. Residential 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 U.S. Power Plant 45.0 44.4 48.7 43.4 41.7 U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.2 21.4 21.3 21.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 81.3 80.9 85.4 79.8 78.2 Total U.S. Demand 103.1 100.9 105.9 98.9 92.2 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 83 83 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 77 78 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Jul 14 Jul 7 Jun 30 Jun 123 Jun 16 Wind 7 6 10 9 8 Solar 4 4 4 4 5 Hydro 6 6 6 6 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 44 45 43 42 43 Coal 19 19 18 17 16 Nuclear 18 18 17 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.54 2.57 Transco Z6 New York 1.81 2.08 PG&E Citygate 4.34 4.34 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.70 1.69 Chicago Citygate 2.37 2.37 Algonquin Citygate 1.88 2.10 SoCal Citygate 3.40 3.43 Waha Hub 2.33 2.35 AECO 1.79 1.84 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 36.75 49.50 PJM West 50.75 49.75 Ercot North 123.00 39.00 Mid C 69.00 55.00 Palo Verde 47.75 45.50 SP-15 53.75 49.00 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Will Dunham)
