(Adds latest prices) July 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a three-week low on Friday on forecasts for less hot weather in the U.S. Northeast, a rise in output and reduced amounts of fuel flowing to the country's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants as maintenance is ongoing at some facilities. That lack of price movement came despite forecasts for the country's overall weather to remain hotter than normal through the end of July, especially in Texas. Power demand in Texas hit a record high for a second day in a row on Thursday, and is expected to top that on Friday and on July 18 and 19, as homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up to cope with a lingering heatwave, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state's power grid operator. Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for cooling, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), according to federal energy data. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.6 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $2.539 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since June 20 for a second day in a row. For the week, the front-month slid about 2% after dropping about 8% last week. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 101.1 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record high of 102.0 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least July 29. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 101.2 bcfd this week to 106.6 bcfd next week and 107.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next week were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 12.7 bcfd so far in July from 11.6 bcfd in June. But, that is still well below the monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April due to ongoing maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. The U.S. is on track to become the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023 - ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar - as much higher global prices continue to feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. Gas was trading around $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $12 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Those prices, however, were down about 62% so far this year after hitting record highs in 2022, due to mild winter temperatures and above-average storage inventories in the northern hemisphere. In 2022, roughly 69%, or 7.2 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe as shippers diverted cargoes from Asia to get higher prices. In 2021, when prices in Asia were higher, just 35%, or about 3.3 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe. With the return of higher gas prices in Asia this year, analysts said they expect U.S. LNG exports to Asia will increase. But that has not happened yet. Just 19%, or 2.1 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Asia during the first half of 2023, while 70%, or 8.0 bcfd, went to Europe. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jul 14 Jul 7 Jul 14 average Forecast Actual Jul 14 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 54 49 35 45 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,984 2,930 2,396 2,611 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 14.3% 14.2% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.57 2.55 7.19 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 9.36 8.76 51.76 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 11.91 11.98 39.36 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 1 2 2 3 3 U.S. GFS CDDs 263 266 239 212 205 U.S. GFS TDDs 264 268 241 215 208 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 102.1 101.6 101.0 97.1 90.5 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.9 7.0 7.8 8.7 8.2 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 110.0 108.6 108.8 105.8 98.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.3 1.2 1.1 2.0 2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.5 6.5 6.9 6.0 5.5 U.S. LNG Exports 13.0 12.4 12.4 11.1 6.1 U.S. Commercial 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 U.S. Residential 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 U.S. Power Plant 45.0 44.6 49.6 43.4 41.7 U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.2 21.4 21.3 21.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 81.3 81.1 86.2 79.8 78.2 Total U.S. Demand 103.1 101.2 106.6 98.9 92.2 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 83 83 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 78 78 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Jul 14 Jul 7 Jun 30 Jun 123 Jun 16 Wind 7 6 10 9 8 Solar 4 4 4 4 5 Hydro 6 6 6 6 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 44 45 43 42 43 Coal 19 19 18 17 16 Nuclear 18 18 17 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.50 2.54 Transco Z6 New York 1.63 1.81 PG&E Citygate 4.40 4.34 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.54 1.70 Chicago Citygate 2.27 2.37 Algonquin Citygate 1.75 1.88 SoCal Citygate 3.98 3.40 Waha Hub 2.33 2.33 AECO 1.77 1.79 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 41.25 36.75 PJM West 46.25 50.75 Ercot North 81.00 123.00 Mid C 71.25 69.00 Palo Verde 47.50 47.75 SP-15 49.25 53.75 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Barbara Lewis and Diane Craft)
