(Adds latest prices) July 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% to a fresh three-week low on Monday on rising output and forecasts for less hot weather over the next two weeks than previously expected. That small price decline came even though the country's overall weather will remain hotter-than-normal (just not as hot as previously excepted last week) through the start of August, especially in Texas. Power demand in Texas will likely hit record highs again this week as homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up to escape another brutal heatwave, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state's power grid operator. Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for cooling, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), according to federal energy data. Front-month gas futures for August delivery fell 2.7 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $2.512 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since June 20 for a third day in a row. Even though prices fell for a second week in a row last week, speculators boosted their net long gas futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a fifth week to their highest since April 2022, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. But, a lack of big price moves in recent weeks cut historic or actual 30-day close-to-close futures volatility to 52.2%, the lowest level since April 2022 for a fifth day in a row. On a daily basis, historic volatility hit a record high of 177.7% in February 2022 and a record low of 7.3% in June 1991. Historic volatility has averaged 84.5% so far this year, compared with a record high of 92.8% in 2022 and a five-year (2018-2022) average of 57.9%. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 101.8 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter-than-normal through at least Aug. 1. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 108.7 bcfd this week to 109.1 bcfd next week. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 12.7 bcfd so far in July from 11.6 bcfd in June. That, however, remained well below the monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April due to ongoing maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jul 14 Jul 7 Jul 14 average Forecast Actual Jul 14 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 54 49 35 45 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,984 2,930 2,396 2,611 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 14.3% 14.2% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.56 2.54 7.19 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 8.24 9.00 51.76 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 10.69 11.91 39.36 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 3 1 2 3 3 U.S. GFS CDDs 254 263 248 213 205 U.S. GFS TDDs 257 264 250 216 208 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.4 101.1 101.2 97.1 90.5 U.S. Imports from Canada 10.2 11.4 12.5 8.9 8.2 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 111.6 112.6 113.7 106.0 98.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.2 2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.8 6.3 6.9 6.2 5.5 U.S. LNG Exports 12.4 12.9 13.3 10.6 6.1 U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 U.S. Residential 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 U.S. Power Plant 44.4 48.9 48.1 46.3 41.7 U.S. Industrial 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 81.0 85.5 84.7 83.0 78.2 Total U.S. Demand 104.7 108.7 109.1 104.0 92.2 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 83 83 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 77 78 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 75 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Jul 21 Jul 14 Jul 7 Jun 30 Jun 23 Wind 6 7 6 10 9 Solar 4 4 4 4 4 Hydro 6 6 6 6 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 46 45 45 43 42 Coal 19 19 19 18 17 Nuclear 17 17 18 17 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.50 2.50 Transco Z6 New York 1.58 1.63 PG&E Citygate 4.67 4.40 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.46 1.54 Chicago Citygate 2.23 2.27 Algonquin Citygate 1.77 1.75 SoCal Citygate 4.83 3.98 Waha Hub 2.23 2.33 AECO 1.51 1.77 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 42.25 41.25 PJM West 38.00 46.25 Ercot North 475.00 81.00 Mid C 102.63 71.25 Palo Verde 161.96 47.50 SP-15 145.50 49.25 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Andrea Ricci)
