July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a one-week high on Wednesday on a drop in daily output and forecasts for the weather to remain hotter-than-normal through early August, especially in Texas. That price increase came despite forecasts for less demand this week than previously expected and slow growth in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due to ongoing maintenance outages at several facilities. Power demand in Texas hit a record high for a second day in a row on Tuesday and will likely break that record again on Wednesday (and next week) as homes and businesses keep air conditioners cranked up to escape a lingering heatwave, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state's power grid operator. Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for cooling, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest coming from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), according to federal energy data. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange remained unchanged at $2.628 per million British thermal units at 9:43 a.m EDT (1343 GMT). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest since July 12. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 101.8 bcfd in May. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 1.8 bcfd to a preliminary one-week low of 99.9 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to declines in North Dakota and Pennsylvania. That would be the biggest one-day drop since January. But analysts noted preliminary data is often revised by large amounts later in the day. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter-than-normal through at least Aug. 3. With LNG export plants expected to return soon, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 108.1 bcfd this week to 108.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 12.8 bcfd so far in July from 11.6 bcfd in June. That, however, was still well below the monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April due to ongoing maintenance at several facilities in Louisiana, including Cameron LNG, Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass and Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jul 14 Jul 7 Jul 14 average Forecast Actual Jul 14 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 54 49 35 45 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,984 2,930 2,396 2,611 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 14.3% 14.2% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.62 2.63 7.19 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 8.44 8.42 51.76 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 11.02 10.56 39.36 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 2 3 2 3 3 U.S. GFS CDDs 253 254 248 213 205 U.S. GFS TDDs 255 257 250 216 208 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.4 101.2 101.5 97.1 90.5 U.S. Imports from Canada 10.2 10.3 12.3 8.9 8.2 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 111.6 111.5 113.8 106.0 98.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.2 2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.8 6.6 7.0 6.2 5.5 U.S. LNG Exports 12.4 12.7 13.2 10.6 6.1 U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 U.S. Residential 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 U.S. Power Plant 44.4 48.0 47.7 46.3 41.7 U.S. Industrial 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.3 21.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 81.0 84.6 84.4 83.0 78.2 Total U.S. Demand 104.7 108.1 108.6 104.0 92.2 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 83 83 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 77 77 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 75 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Jul 21 Jul 14 Jul 7 Jun 30 Jun 23 Wind 6 7 6 10 9 Solar 4 4 4 4 4 Hydro 6 6 6 6 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 46 45 45 43 42 Coal 19 19 19 18 17 Nuclear 17 17 18 17 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.52 2.46 Transco Z6 New York 1.89 1.70 PG&E Citygate 4.71 4.88 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.61 1.53 Chicago Citygate 2.35 2.28 Algonquin Citygate 1.90 2.02 SoCal Citygate 5.61 5.89 Waha Hub 2.23 2.16 AECO 1.69 1.69 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 37.75 42.50 PJM West 38.75 41.00 Ercot North 49.50 44.50 Mid C 121.00 115.25 Palo Verde 80.00 136.00 SP-15 81.75 96.50 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by David Evans)
