Aug 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained about 3% on Monday on forecasts for the weather to remain hotter than normal through early September, keeping air conditioning demand high, especially in Texas. That price increase occurred despite forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Power demand in Texas was on track to hit an 11th all-time high this summer, with usage expected to reach 85,605 megawatts (MW) on Monday as homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up during a lingering heat wave, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state's power grid operator. The current all-time high in ERCOT is 85,435 MW, which was set on Aug. 10. Electric use hit a preliminary weekend record of 85,116 MW on Sunday, breaking the prior weekend record of 84,805 MW on Saturday. To help keep the grid reliable during the heat storm, ERCOT asked customers to conserve electricity twice during the past week, on Sunday (Aug. 20) and Thursday (Aug. 17). Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas burned to produce power for cooling, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest coming from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), federal energy data showed. The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) projected a tropical cyclone could form in the Gulf of Mexico this week and hit the South Texas coast in a few days. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 6.8 cents, or 2.7%, to $2.619 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:52 a.m. EDT (1352 GMT). One factor that has weighed on gas futures in recent months - futures are down about 41% so far this year - has been persistently lower spot prices. Next-day gas at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana was trading around $2.44 per mmBtu for Monday. Spot gas has traded over futures just twice since the end of April. With prices down about 8% last week, speculators cut their net long gas futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for the second time in three weeks, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has eased to 101.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August from 101.8 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least Sept. 5. Even though temperatures will remain higher than usual for weeks, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would ease from 102.6 bcfd this week to 101.8 bcfd next week due to a seasonal cooling of the weather. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen from an average of 12.7 bcfd in July to 12.3 bcfd so far in August due mostly to reductions at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Aug 18 Aug 11 Aug 18 average Forecast Actual Aug 18 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 33 35 54 49 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,098 3,065 2,570 2,815 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 10.1% 10.8% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.65 2.55 8.78 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 12.39 11.96 69.68 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 13.95 14.16 53.22 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 3 3 1 7 9 U.S. GFS CDDs 214 233 200 180 169 U.S. GFS TDDs 217 236 201 187 178 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.4 101.3 101.4 98.2 92.0 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.0 7.1 7.2 8.6 8.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 108.4 108.4 108.6 106.8 100.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.3 1.4 1.4 2.4 2.5 U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.0 6.7 6.5 5.5 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 12.5 12.0 12.5 11.1 6.1 U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 U.S. Residential 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 U.S. Power Plant 46.0 45.7 44.6 41.8 41.2 U.S. Industrial 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 82.6 82.4 81.4 78.6 78.0 Total U.S. Demand 103.4 102.6 101.8 97.6 92.2 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 83 83 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 77 77 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Aug 25 Aug 18 Aug 11 Aug 4 Jul 28 Wind 10 7 7 7 7 Solar 4 4 4 4 4 Hydro 6 6 5 5 5 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 41 45 45 45 45 Coal 19 19 19 20 20 Nuclear 18 17 17 17 16 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.44 2.55 Transco Z6 New York 1.24 1.29 PG&E Citygate 4.74 5.21 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.21 1.21 Chicago Citygate 2.19 2.37 Algonquin Citygate 1.30 1.33 SoCal Citygate 3.46 5.68 Waha Hub 2.17 2.11 AECO 1.81 1.88 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 22.25 27.25 PJM West 23.75 29.00 Ercot North 207.50 342.50 Mid C 73.50 67.00 Palo Verde 51.00 58.50 SP-15 48.25 59.00 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
