(Adds latest prices) Aug 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Friday on forecasts for hot weather to continue into next week, forcing power generators to keep burning lots of gas to produce electricity for air conditioning. This week, that heat wave boosted power prices in Texas to a 30-month high and the state's grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), called on consumers to conserve energy for a second day in a row on Friday due to tight electric supplies. Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas burned to produce power for cooling, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest coming from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), federal energy data showed. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.1 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $2.540 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). For the week, the contract declined less than 1% after falling about 8% last week. The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), meanwhile, forecast a tropical cyclone could form in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico over the next week. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states has eased to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from 101.8 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Despite a seasonal cooling, meteorologists forecast the weather in the lower 48 U.S. states will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least Sept. 9. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 103.9 bcfd this week to 104.3 bcfd next week before dropping to 102.6 bcfd as the weather turns seasonally cooler. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday, due to an expected increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, fell from an average of 12.7 bcfd in July to 12.2 bcfd so far in August due mostly to reductions at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. Cheniere's Corpus LNG export plant was on track to pull in about 2.2 bcfd of feedgas on Friday, up from around 1.6 bcfd on Wednesday and Thursday after Tropical Storm Harold passed close to the plant on Tuesday. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Aug 25 Aug 18 Aug 25 average Forecast Actual Aug 25 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 32 32 61 51 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,115 3,083 2,631 2,866 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 8.7% 9.5% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.50 2.52 8.78 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 10.67 10.20 69.68 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 12.92 13.74 53.22 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 4 4 1 7 11 U.S. GFS CDDs 210 212 200 180 160 U.S. GFS TDDs 214 216 201 187 171 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.4 101.4 101.3 98.2 92.0 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.0 7.2 7.2 8.6 8.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 108.4 108.5 108.5 106.8 100.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.3 1.4 1.4 2.4 2.5 U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.0 6.9 6.6 5.5 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 12.5 11.8 12.4 11.1 6.1 U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 U.S. Residential 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 U.S. Power Plant 46.0 46.9 46.9 41.8 41.2 U.S. Industrial 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 82.6 83.7 83.8 78.6 78.0 Total U.S. Demand 103.4 103.9 104.3 97.6 92.2 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 84 83 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 77 77 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Aug 25 Aug 18 Aug 11 Aug 4 Jul 28 Wind 7 7 7 7 7 Solar 3 4 4 4 4 Hydro 5 6 5 5 5 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 45 45 45 45 45 Coal 20 19 19 20 20 Nuclear 17 17 17 17 16 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.42 2.60 Transco Z6 New York 1.05 1.19 PG&E Citygate 4.25 4.16 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.04 1.09 Chicago Citygate 2.24 2.36 Algonquin Citygate 1.22 1.33 SoCal Citygate 4.67 3.45 Waha Hub 2.10 2.21 AECO 1.76 1.85 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 29.00 24.25 PJM West 43.00 36.75 Ercot North 1599.25 925.00 Mid C 70.00 38.50 Palo Verde 52.00 32.50 SP-15 52.25 43.50 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Andy Sullivan)
