(Add latest prices) Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained about 2% to a one-week high on Monday on forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand next week than previously expected, and soaring global gas prices on worries workers could strike at U.S. energy major Chevron's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants in Australia. On their second to last day as the front-month, U.S. gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.9 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $2.579 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Aug. 21. Futures for October, which will soon be the front-month, were up about 3 cents to $2.68 per mmBtu. Gas prices in Europe, meanwhile, soared about 20% over the past two days to around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark on the possible Chevron Australia LNG strike. U.S. price increased even though the heat wave blanketing much of the country for the past few weeks eased and with a major hurricane expected to hit Florida on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to strengthen into a hurricane over the next 12 hours and hit the northwest coast of Florida as a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour (185 kilometers per hour) early Wednesday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Traders said Idalia would likely knock out power to over a million homes and businesses, which would cut demand for both power and gas later this week. Florida consumed about 4.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas in 2022, with most of that fuel, about 3.8 bcfd, burned to produce power. Despite the end of the heat wave that boosted demand in Texas to near record highs over the past couple of weeks, the state's power grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), projected electric supplies would exceed demand by less than 3,000 megawatts around 8 p.m. local time on Monday. Worries about those tight supplies kept prices at the ERCOT North hub , which includes Dallas, at a still extremely high $1,056 per megawatt hour for Monday, down from a 30-month high of $1,599 for Friday when supplies were expected to be much tighter. That compares with an average of $91 so far this year, $78 in 2022 and a five-year (2018-2022) average of $66 per MWh. Between Aug. 24 and Aug. 27, tight supplies forced ERCOT urge customers to conserve energy after the sun went down and solar power stopped working. Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas burned to produce power for cooling, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest coming from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), federal energy data showed. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states eased to 101.7 bcfd so far in August, down from 101.8 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Despite a seasonal cooling, meteorologists forecast the weather in the lower 48 U.S. states will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least Sept. 12. Refinitiv forecast that seasonal cooling will cause U.S. gas demand, including exports, to slide from 104.2 bcfd this week to 103.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday Thursday, due in part to an expected increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, fell from an average of 12.7 bcfd in July to 12.2 bcfd so far in August due mostly to reductions at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Aug 25 Aug 18 Aug 25 average Forecast Actual Aug 25 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 32 32 61 51 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,115 3,083 2,631 2,866 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 8.7% 9.5% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.60 2.54 8.78 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 11.21 11.14 69.68 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 13.46 12.92 53.22 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 3 4 3 7 14 U.S. GFS CDDs 213 210 189 165 153 U.S. GFS TDDs 216 214 192 172 167 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.4 101.8 101.7 98.8 92.0 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.2 7.1 7.2 8.4 8.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 108.5 108.9 108.9 107.2 100.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.4 1.5 1.4 2.1 2.5 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.9 6.7 6.7 5.1 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 11.8 12.3 12.7 10.4 6.1 U.S. Commercial 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 U.S. Residential 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 U.S. Power Plant 46.9 46.8 45.5 42.9 41.2 U.S. Industrial 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.3 21.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 83.7 83.7 82.3 79.6 78.0 Total U.S. Demand 103.9 104.2 103.2 97.2 92.2 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 84 83 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 77 77 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Sep 1 Aug 25 Aug 18 Aug 11 Aug 4 Wind 6 7 7 7 7 Solar 3 4 4 4 4 Hydro 5 5 6 5 5 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 46 45 45 45 45 Coal 20 20 19 19 20 Nuclear 17 17 17 17 17 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.46 2.42 Transco Z6 New York 0.96 1.05 PG&E Citygate 4.33 4.25 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 0.76 1.04 Chicago Citygate 2.21 2.24 Algonquin Citygate 1.04 1.22 SoCal Citygate 4.40 4.67 Waha Hub 2.09 2.10 AECO 1.78 1.76 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 29.50 29.00 PJM West 34.75 43.00 Ercot North 1055.50 1599.25 Mid C 117.50 70.00 Palo Verde 45.50 52.00 SP-15 46.50 52.25 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
