(Updates with latest prices) Sept 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Friday as a drop in daily output and forecasts for continued hot weather offset a predicted reduction in gas use next week due in part to the three-day U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend. Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.3 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $2.765 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). For the week, the front-month was up about 9% after falling less than 1% last week. In Georgia and Florida, there were still over 104,000 homes and businesses without power on Friday in the wake of Hurricane Idalia, according to data from PowerOutage.us. Those figures were down from outage peaks of around 288,000 in Florida and 217,000 in Georgia as utilities restored service. Energy traders said the electric outages were limiting the amount of gas that power generators in those states were burning to produce electricity. The remains of Idalia were expected to die out in the Atlantic Ocean by the middle of next week. No tropical cyclones were expected to make landfall in the U.S. over the next week, according to the latest forecast from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states rose to 102.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in August, up from 102.1 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record of 102.3 bcfd in May. On a daily basis, however, output over the past couple of days was on track to drop by 2.7 bcfd to a preliminary four-month low of 99.2 bcfd on Friday. Energy traders noted that preliminary data - especially start of the month data - is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the lower 48 U.S. states will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least Sept. 16. LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, will slide from 104.4 bcfd this week to 101.7 bcfd next week due in part to the long holiday weekend before rising to 103.2 bcfd in two weeks, due in part to a forecast increase in LNG exports. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell from an average of 12.7 bcfd in July to 12.3 bcfd in August due mostly to reductions at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Sep 1 Aug 25 Sep 1 average Forecast Actual Sep 1 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 41 32 55 60 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,156 3,115 2,686 2,926 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 7.9% 8.7% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.74 2.77 7.76 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 10.35 11.29 57.90 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 13.20 13.41 46.99 34.11 8.95 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 6 6 3 7 19 U.S. GFS CDDs 199 200 189 165 142 U.S. GFS TDDs 205 206 192 172 161 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.4 102.0 101.6 98.8 92.6 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.2 7.2 7.5 8.4 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply 108.5 109.2 109.l 107.2 100.4 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.9 7.0 7.0 5.1 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 11.8 12.5 12.8 10.4 6.5 U.S. Commercial 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.9 U.S. Residential 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.9 U.S. Power Plant 46.9 46.3 43.3 42.9 34.9 U.S. Industrial 21.4 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 83.7 83.4 80.1 79.6 72.5 Total U.S. Demand 103.9 104.4 101.7 97.2 87.0 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 83 83 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 77 77 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Sep 1 Aug 25 Aug 18 Aug 11 Aug 4 Wind 5 7 7 7 7 Solar 4 4 4 4 4 Hydro 5 5 6 5 5 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 47 45 45 45 45 Coal 20 20 19 19 20 Nuclear 18 17 17 17 17 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.56 2.48 Transco Z6 New York 1.43 1.37 PG&E Citygate 3.38 4.46 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.34 1.31 Chicago Citygate 2.32 2.33 Algonquin Citygate 1.47 1.43 SoCal Citygate 2.85 6.62 Waha Hub 2.16 2.21 AECO 1.89 1.94 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 23.00 25.75 PJM West 25.25 24.50 Ercot North 117.25 150.00 Mid C 54.50 69.00 Palo Verde 38.50 53.00 SP-15 40.25 66.50 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andy Sullivan)
