(Adds latest prices) Sept 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 7% to a one-week low on Tuesday on forecasts for cooler weather and lower gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 18.3 cents, or 6.6%, to settle at $2.582 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since Aug. 29. Even though gas prices gained 9% last week, speculators added so many shorts that they switched their net long futures and options position into a net short position on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for the first time since early June, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. In Texas, the state's grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), issued a Weather Watch from Sept. 6-8 due to forecasted higher temperatures, higher electrical demand, and the potential for lower reserves. ERCOT said there is currently enough capacity to meet forecasted demand and it expects grid conditions to remain normal. ERCOT said it set a new September peak demand record on Monday and expects to break that September record every weekday this week. The grid operator, however, projected those peaks would remain below its all-time high of 85,435 megawatts on Aug. 10. Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas burned to produce power for cooling, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest coming from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), federal energy data showed. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states slid to 101.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September from 102.2 bcfd in August and a record 102.3 bcfd in May. Even though the weather in the lower 48 U.S. states will be less hot than previously expected over the next two weeks, meteorologists still forecast it will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least Sept. 20. LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, will ease from 100.9 bcfd this week to 100.6 bcfd next week with a seasonal cooling of the weather. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday before the long Labor Day weekend. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell from an average of 12.3 bcfd in August to 11.7 bcfd so far in September due mostly to reductions at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. The U.S. is on track to become the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023 - ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar - as much higher global prices continue to feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. Gas was trading around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Sep 1 Aug 25 Sep 1 average Forecast Actual Sep 1 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 41 32 55 60 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,156 3,115 2,686 2,926 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 7.9% 8.7% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.62 2.77 7.76 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 10.61 10.66 57.90 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 13.40 13.20 46.99 34.11 8.95 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 9 6 6 19 24 U.S. GFS CDDs 169 199 154 146 131 U.S. GFS TDDs 178 205 160 165 155 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 102.1 101.7 101.8 100.0 92.6 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.2 7.2 7.6 8.6 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply 109.3 108.9 109.4 108.6 100.4 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.0 7.2 7.0 5.5 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 12.5 13.1 13.1 11.0 6.5 U.S. Commercial 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.9 U.S. Residential 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.9 U.S. Power Plant 46.0 41.9 41.4 41.3 34.9 U.S. Industrial 21.6 21.4 21.5 21.4 21.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 83.1 78.6 78.6 78.1 72.5 Total U.S. Demand 104.1 100.9 100.6 96.8 87.0 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 83 83 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 77 77 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Sep 8 Sep 1 Aug 25 Aug 18 Aug 1 Wind 10 6 7 7 7 Solar 4 4 4 4 4 Hydro 5 6 5 6 5 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 41 45 45 45 45 Coal 18 19 20 19 19 Nuclear 19 18 17 17 17 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.70 2.56 Transco Z6 New York 1.84 1.43 PG&E Citygate 3.33 3.38 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.64 1.34 Chicago Citygate 2.35 2.32 Algonquin Citygate 1.38 1.47 SoCal Citygate 2.61 2.85 Waha Hub 1.98 2.16 AECO 1.81 1.89 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 20.25 23.00 PJM West 26.25 25.25 Ercot North 94.75 17.25 Mid C 53.83 54.50 Palo Verde 34.75 38.50 SP-15 34.75 40.25 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Leslie Adler)
