Sept 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Thursday as the market waited for direction from a federal report expected to show a smaller-than-usual storage build last week when warmer-than-normal weather kept air conditioning demand high. Analysts forecast U.S. utilities added 67 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 15. That compares with an increase of 99 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 84 bcf. If correct, last week's increase would boost stockpiles to 3.272 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 6.0% above the five-year average of 3.086 tcf for the time of year. Prices held steady despite forecasts for milder weather and less gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 0.9 cents, or 0.3%, to $2.742 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:20 a.m. EDT (1420 GMT). The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected there was a 40% chance that a tropical cyclone could develop off Georgia and the Carolinas on the U.S. East Coast during the next week and a 70% chance that a cyclone could develop in the Central Atlantic between the Cape Verde islands and the Caribbean Sea. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states has eased to 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from a record 102.3 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, however, output over the past four days was on track to drop by around 2.1 bcfd to a preliminary 10-week low of 100.6 bcfd on Thursday. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the lower 48 states would remain near normal until around Sept. 30 before turning mostly warmer than usual from Oct. 1-6. Traders, however, noted that above normal temperatures in late September were still mild, with averages expected to be around 71 degrees Fahrenheit (21.7 Celsius) versus a normal of 70 F for that time of year. With seasonally milder weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, will ease from 95.3 bcfd this week to 93.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have averaged 12.8 bcfd so far in September, up from 12.3 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, however, feedgas was on track to fall to a three-week low of 11.6 bcfd on Thursday due to the shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point in Maryland for annual maintenance and a reduction at Cheniere Energy's 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass in Louisiana. Gas flows to Sabine were on track to drop to a one-month low of 3.6 bcfd on Thursday from an average of 4.5 bcfd over the past several weeks. Pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, have averaged about 7.2 bcfd so far in September, up from a record 7.1 bcfd in August, according to LSEG data. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Sep 15 Sep 8 Sep 15 average Forecast Actual Sep 15 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 67 57 99 84 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,272 3,205 2,859 3,086 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 6.0% 6.8% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.73 2.73 7.76 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 11.21 11.67 57.90 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 14.24 14.25 46.99 34.11 8.95 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 25 25 47 42 61 U.S. GFS CDDs 99 103 102 107 86 U.S. GFS TDDs 124 128 149 149 147 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 102.2 101.8 102.0 99.2 92.6 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.1 6.5 7.0 8.8 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply 109.3 108.3 109.0 107.0 100.4 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.0 7.0 7.3 5.6 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 12.1 13.0 12.0 11.5 6.5 U.S. Commercial 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 U.S. Residential 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.9 U.S. Power Plant 42.1 36.1 35.1 36.9 34.9 U.S. Industrial 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.3 21.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 79.4 73.3 72.5 74.3 72.5 Total U.S. Demand 100.5 95.3 93.7 93.4 87.0 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 83 83 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 77 77 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Sep 22 Sep 15 Sep 8 Sep 1 Aug 25 Wind 8 5 9 6 7 Solar 5 4 4 4 4 Hydro 5 5 5 6 5 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 43 46 44 45 45 Coal 17 18 19 19 20 Nuclear 20 19 17 18 17 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.78 2.46 Transco Z6 New York 1.16 1.15 PG&E Citygate 3.54 3.74 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.06 2.53 Chicago Citygate 2.28 2.37 Algonquin Citygate 1.38 1.45 SoCal Citygate 4.21 3.76 Waha Hub 1.84 2.09 AECO 1.82 1.73 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 27.00 26.00 PJM West 35.50 36.75 Ercot North 39.00 106.75 Mid C 65.00 62.00 Palo Verde 30.50 30.00 SP-15 25.25 28.25 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
