(Adds latest prices) Sept 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Tuesday on forecasts for the weather to remain mild through the middle of October and a drop in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1 cent, or 0.6%, to settle at $2.656 per million British thermal units. Futures for November, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 6 cents to $2.85 per mmBtu. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states has eased to 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from a record 102.3 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 1.7 bcfd to a preliminary 13-week low of 100.3 bcfd on Tuesday. If correct, that would be the biggest one-day drop since early August, but energy traders have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through at least Oct. 11. But energy analysts noted that above-normal temperatures in early October were still relatively mild, with averages expected to be around 72 degrees Fahrenheit (22.2 Celsius) versus a normal of 69 F for that time of year. With LNG and pipeline exports expected to increase, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would edge up from 94.5 bcfd this week to 94.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Monday. Pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, have averaged 7.2 bcfd so far in September, up from a record 7.1 bcfd in August, according to LSEG data. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have averaged 12.6 bcfd so far in September, up from 12.3 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, however, feedgas was expected to drop to a four-week low of 11.2 bcfd on Tuesday due to the shutdown on Sept. 20 of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point in Maryland for about a week of annual maintenance and reductions at other plants, including Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. The U.S. is on track to become the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar. Much higher global prices have fed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked mostly to Russia's war in Ukraine. Gas was trading around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $15 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Sep 22 Sep 15 Sep 122 average Forecast Actual Sep 22 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 84 64 103 84 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,353 3,269 2,962 3,170 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 5.8% 5.9% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.59 2.64 7.76 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 12.73 13.53 57.90 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 14.99 14.60 46.99 34.11 8.95 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 34 34 80 63 77 U.S. GFS CDDs 107 105 61 85 73 U.S. GFS TDDs 141 139 141 148 150 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.9 101.7 101.9 99.6 92.6 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.6 6.8 7.0 8.7 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply 108.5 108.5 108.9 107.0 100.4 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.9 7.1 7.2 6.2 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 13.0 11.7 11.9 12.0 6.5 U.S. Commercial 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 U.S. Residential 3.9 4.0 4.2 5.4 3.9 U.S. Power Plant 35.9 36.4 36.1 32.2 34.9 U.S. Industrial 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.2 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 73.2 73.9 73.9 71.1 72.5 Total U.S. Demand 95.1 94.5 94.8 91.2 87.0 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 83 83 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 77 77 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Sep 29 Sep 22 Sep 15 Sep 8 Sep 1 Wind 8 5 9 6 Solar 5 4 4 4 Hydro 5 5 5 6 Other 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 43 46 44 45 Coal 17 18 19 19 Nuclear 20 19 17 18 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.63 2.63 Transco Z6 New York 1.29 0.78 PG&E Citygate 3.55 3.23 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.23 0.80 Chicago Citygate 2.20 2.11 Algonquin Citygate 1.49 1.22 SoCal Citygate 5.39 3.55 Waha Hub 1.99 1.65 AECO 1.73 1.73 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 27.75 21.25 PJM West 38.25 25.00 Ercot North 81.25 48.50 Mid C 57.50 70.00 Palo Verde 37.25 23.75 SP-15 34.50 21.00 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
