Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) four-day Prime Day event is colliding with rising macro tensionand this time, the pressure isn't just from rivals like Walmart and Target. It's from Washington. Trump's Liberation Day tariffsslapped on imports from 180 countrieshave thrown a wrench into consumer behavior and seller strategy alike. Analysts at Adobe expect $23.8 billion in total online sales across all U.S. retailers during the four-day stretch, but the real story might lie in what's not being bought. In categories like apparel, electronics, and TVswhere discounts are typically the deepestbrands are starting to hold back, and shoppers are watching prices with more caution than ever.
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Merchants who normally rely on Prime Day to juice visibility are also sitting this one out. Upstream Brands, known for cocktail ice trays, scrapped its usual discounts due to 50% tariffsmarking the first time it's pulled back since joining the sale. Unilever's Blueair trimmed its product lineup as well. A recent survey by Akeneo shows nearly 1 in 4 U.S. shoppers plans to skip Prime Day, citing inflation and uncertainty. Even with 196 million Prime members in the U.S., signs are flashing yellow. Amazon hasn't commented directly on the tariff impact but noted that customers are trading down to more affordable alternativeswhile it works closely with sellers to maintain pricing and selection.
With 75% of online spending during this window projected to go through Amazon, Prime Day has become a real-time pulse check on consumer resilience. But stretching the event from two to four days could cut both ways. On one hand, it allows Amazon to better compete with Walmart's six-day deal push. On the other, it might dilute urgency. Cart abandonment is now a real concern, says Kearney's Katie Thomas. As the dust settles, investors will be watching closelynot just to measure Amazon's topline boost, but to see how rising tariffs and trade tensions could reshape retail momentum in the second half of 2025.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.